what demographic group will prove decisive? latinos? wal-mart moms? say the election finishes 52-48. i propose that every single demographic group constituting ten percent or more of the population is equally decisive. this would include left-handers or people living within sight of a big hill, for example. perhaps, on reflection, we will conclude that the latino vote was decisive. if romney had just gotten to where bush was, say broken off another 15%, he'd have won. so maybe the green-eyed people are evenly split. well, that was decisive for obama, because if romney had gotten them all, he would have won. every segment of the population, no matter who they are and how they voted is decisive in exactly the same sense as the latino vote. so maybe we oughtta get a little milder on the politics of groups. once you pull out wal-mart moms, they are decisive. women as a whole are decisive; men too; really hermaphrodites are entirely decisive in a close election. rural voters are decisive, also young and middle-aged and old voters. short voters, etc., no matter how they do vote. turnout is decisive; so are the people who'd have turned out no matter what.