Polls, Pols, Populations
By Crispin Sartwell
Here's a basic picture of how polling works. There is an antecedent set of facts known as public opinion. The pollster takes a representative slice and reports the nature of this opinion, like a rover on Mars clutching a sample of crust. The pollster is a scientist.
But that is not the function of polling in the bizarre house of mirrors that encloses our politics.
I am a political junkie, and so end up watching MSNBC, Fox, and CNN a lot these days. But the coverage, with a few exceptions, has been unbelievably repetitive, banal, and empty. Thousands of hours have been devoted to muttering the word "change," determining who the real "change agent" is, investigating how the voters' evident desire for change will affect the vote, querying campaign staffers about the relation of the candidate to the term, and so on.
Really, once you narrow the thing down to a single word, you've subtracted all the content. You might pluck any word out of the dictionary with as much cogency. Who is candidate of hydrolysis? Who the candidate toponium? Who, of cheddar?
Here's why we whittle the grand spectacle of human thought down to the single term. It is extremely pollable. To what extent do you agree with these statements: "America needs change" "Mitt Romney is a changent," etc. That's a lot easier than getting some poor schlub on the phone and trying to work through the details of Duncan Hunter's health care plan.
Now, the people interpreting the polls swing into action. The Washington Post leads with the story that change is polling well and experience is falling. The campaigns have their own pollsters, and they too see the upward trend in change. The next day all the candidates appear on stage with big red, white, and blue signs that say "change, change, change." Even Mitt Romney.
Duncan Hunter, in the spirit of his hero Salvador Dali, promises the immediate complete random change of everything, all at once. If elected, I will melt all the clocks and turn earth's atmosphere into a solid.
All of this represents the relatively harmless hijinks of Americans, a fascinating primitive people. But now something bad happens: some people actually start to yearn for change and wonder about who best embodies it, if indeed it is possible to wonder about something that has no content. Pretty soon Candy Crowley sticks a mic in their face and asks them why they're here to see Hillary. Change! Change? Change.
Now the polling has come full circle. The people want change (as shown by the polls). The politicians re-gear to put out their fresh new message: change. Then people see everyone talking about change on television. Then they sort of think they want change. Then they get polled about their attitude towards change.
The simple way to put this is that polling and focus groups articulate or shape rather than represent public opinion. That's not primarily because polling changes peoples minds, but because the categories and questions and terms employ in polling end up shaping the debate through the media and the campaigns.
That much is irritating, but not disastrous. Something has to shape the debate. But it's hard not to see that the giant woolly symbolic themes of this campaign have emerged largely as a matter of convenience for pollsters. We have tumbled, thereby, into the void. I can still hear John Edwards screaming as he falls, falls.
In every election cycle over the last fifty years, the "scientific" "measurement" of "public opinion" has grown in intensity. It's hard to imagine how many polls by how many organizations the voters of Iowa and New Hampshire were subjected to, for instance.
There are no real stories, and no real policies, there are only the tools of demographic analysis with their hideous limitations. The question isn't whether Hillary has got a good education plan; the question is "agree or disagree" with "education"? Strongly agree! So let's try to say 'education' all the time.
At any rate, I have no solution to propose. It may be that, having narrowed down the governance of the supposedly free world to a single term, the pollsters have nowhere left to go: they can't just poll single consonants or blank sheets of paper, can they? Perhaps they'll add some more words.
And my fellow Americans, I leave you with this: Cheddar. Cheddar we can believe in.
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