thomas friedman is an excellent practitioner of a basic art of the pundit and politician: take whatever might be happening now and feed it into your a priori positions: everything is an argument for whatever: in this case, the iranian rebellion is an argument for energy independence, the green economy of the 400th century, or whatever friedman and al gore are cooking up for our bright-with-promise superbureaucratic, extremely regulated future. now you might think that if everyone stopped buying oil from iran, then the ayatollahs would go gently into that good night. but perhaps they'd just crack down harder. if we really wanted to support the iranian people, friedman sagely points out, we'd work on making their economy collapse. at any rate the price of oil is half what it was a year ago, and the iranian economy has, in fact, tanked.
however, the iranians are rebelling right now, whereas the green economy of the 400th century will be achieved in the 400th century. now you could drop a $1 a gallon new tax on oil (well, no you couldn't, because congress would refuse, not being interested in hanging themselves publicly.). you could, if you had unilateral total sway, pass it in a matter of months. and you could send us into another recessive spiral and end up with a perpetual republican government. but if you think that taking such steps is going to help the rebels in tehran next weekend, you're just being silly and insincere. if it's leverage you want, start buying all your oil from iran at double the current price. then in a year or two, you'll have them over a barrel, as it were. if they don't need your business, where is the leverage coming from?
hard not to see that this is obama's basic strategy (well, it's everyone's, even mine). economic crisis=gov health care, his favorite education initiatives or whatever. in other words, anything is a good enough reason to do what you want to do. if it was bush, of course, an economic crisis would be a good reason to cut taxes or or encourage oil drilling in alaska or...you know, torture people. the iranian rebellion would be a neat confirmation of supply-side economics, the godhead of jesus, and various weapons systems.
Exhibit A: the Soviet Union. High oil prices in the 1970s suckered the Kremlin into propping up inefficient industries, overextending subsidies, postponing real economic reforms and invading Afghanistan. When oil prices collapsed to $15 a barrel in the late 1980s, the overextended, petrified Soviet Empire went bust.
exhibit b: russia. before energy prices skyrocketed, putin started imposing a repressive, militaristic regime. when they skyrocketed, he continued. when they dropped, he redoubled his efforts. in the green economy of the 400th century, he'll be doing the same, because vlad putin is immortal.