so if you happen to be in lahti, finland next week, you can catch me keynoting the nordic society for aesthetics. the theme is environmental aesthetics, so with the goal of writing some sort of paper, i got hold of environment: an interdisciplinary anthology (yale 2008): the kind of thing you might teach in an environmental studies 100 course, if you were taking an interdisciplinary or partly-humanities approach.
now i'm sick of being a global-warming denialist or whatever; it's boring, and really all i can do either way is wait, and either cook or not. but people are obsessed, as became obvious again when i spoke at u maryland a couple of weeks ago on "the future of urbanism." the architecture school was committed to one thing: reducing per capita fossil fuel consumption. to do that, the best technique - supposedly - is to pile people on top of each other in extremely close proximity: the future is purely urban. any aspect of human relations to the world that does not focus exclusively on carbon emission is a dangerous distraction in these, the last days of time.
sadly, we're never going to hit the point where an apology is due, only slowly slip into some other terminal crisis, as this one slowly dissipates. but anyway, reading the little intro to global warming in environment - it is of course the first theme in the book - reminds one again that "science" in the hands of these people means an incredibly tendentious, screechingly emotive tissue of mistakes.
here's the first paragraph: "If an asteroid hurtling toward earth would, with strong probability, strike this planet in forty years, raise sea levels permanently between six inches to sixteen feet, force up to one quarter of all species into extinction, inaugurate plagues and disease, inundate parts of some nations, drown populated islands whole, render coasts uninhabitable, instensify hurricanes, typhoons, and tornadoes into record-breaking storms, cause frequent floods and landslides, and kill millions of people, then every government would work furiously to discover how that asteroid might be diverted or destroyed. There is no asteroid....But the rest of the scenario is very possibly true."
ok think about this "if" construction; think about 'very possibly'; think about what this rhetoric is doing. one thing it is not doing is reporting a series of objective facts; it is trying to make you start running around in circles screaming. i particularly enjoy "six inches to sixteen feet," a good representation of the actual quality of the data. one tends to remember the sixteen feet. kill millions? or dozens, to represent the range of estimates in the scientific community..
then there is the usual distinction between climate and weather. (the first thing that we better say about this distinction is that climate consists of weather). they want this because then one cold winter or, say, five smaller-than-average hurricane seasons in a row would have no tendency to show that what they're saying is false. but then virtually every line of the text violates its own stated distinction: it starts counting hurricanes year by year, of course dealing only with segments reflecting an increase. "In Europe, the summer of 2003 was the hottest in 500 years." "In 2000, about 25,000 lives were lost in Venezuela's worst flooding in history." by the author's own standards, no conclusions follow about climate at all, of course.
what happens is you start with: what if it were like this....? then you describe an apocalypse, pointing out that it is possible, that is, that there is some possible world in which it is true. then you enumerate bad things that have actually happened. since of course bad things happen all the time (now, as before), it looks like you are accumulating overwhelming data. but every piece of data is just another fallacy, just there to make you afraid. it is fallacious because the only thing that is not nailed down is the actual causal connection to global warming. at the crucial moment you just declare that it "may" be connected and go on to the next bad thing. the current fashion for connecting climate to national security indicates that this will soon be happening with wars, genocides, etc: they may be connected to climate change. remember your most embarrassing moment? that may have been caused by global warming. that is a true statement and, by the standards of environment: an interdisciplinary anthology or al gore, the distressing story of your most embarrassing moment constitutes scientific evidence that the world is getting warmer.
"Tropical diseases will spread more widely with greater virulence....The dengue virus in South America and Rift Valley fever in Africa and the Middle East have extended their range. Malaria probably will too." right, so to even begin to connect this to climate change, you'd have to sort out all the myriad factors - many of which are not well understood - that affect the spread of disease. there was a time when tuscany and maryland were infested by malaria. but they don't bother to do much of anything except to declare that global warming and the spread of dengue fever may be connected. the mistake in this paragraph is the simple assertion that tropical diseases will spread. measuring conclusions to data and sticking with the basic rhetoric y'all associate with scientists such as al gore and john kerry, you should have said they may spread. if tropical diseases recede, on the other hand, believe me somebody's model would connect that to climate change.
indeed if average precipitation increases, that may well be connected to global warming. if it decreases, that may well be connected. if it increases in some places and decreases in others, as it has throughout the last few bllion years, that may well etc. if deserts spread or contract, glaciers melt or accumulate. ask yourself: what event, data point, etc would convince al gore that his models were grossly exaggerated? no data cannot be fed into a faith this flexible, this committed, this needy. no data can count against it. it's an entirely lovely conception of a thoroughly post-empirical science.
in short, the arguments come far short of any evidence. they are framed and infested by a thousand emotive and rhetorical devices designed to constrain you to agree and to gloss over the breathtaking shortcomings. it's fuckin pathetic. come back to me when you're sincere and not merely manipulative: try to show me, not just bludgeon me into nodding along with an endless stack of random jive.
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