i think bahrain is where this region-wide uprising could go fearsomely wrong. of course libya shows the potential effectiveness of the forces of reaction etc. but already the monarchy in bahrain is in a brutal crackdown on shiites, employing saudi military forces. let's just say that various nightmare scenarios occur, and saudi arabia and iran are two of the most heavily-armed powers in the region, with constituencies extending far beyond their own borders. it could get extremely bad extremely quickly over an extremely large area. throw in israel, the u.s. presence in iraq and the internal problems there, and you have a witches' brew of extraordinarily complex conflagration.