well, probly

ahh the night before the election. this can always make you look like a doink but i do think it is likely that obama will garner a fairly narrow but clear win. one thing to say about pennsylvania, such a 'reliably blue state,' etc. we have a conservative republican governor and a republican state legislature, whom we elected. why romney didn't go this way weeks ago is anyone's guess. even when he was polling down 8 points or whatever, there were too few realistic roads without pa and reasons to think it could bent. i have to say i am not too impressed by this 'not in the last five presidential elections' style of reasoning. true until it's not and you've got to look closely at the situation now. which of these possible pick-offs is demographically best for romney, e.g.? well it's all romney and tom smith for senate signs around here for may a square mile. admittedly it's sparsely populated. but i would like to see the count tomorrow from my precinct, latimore township; it would surprise me if was below 70% and it could be substantially higher than that. if he could possibly pry pa loose suddenly there are many scenarios to win the electoral college. but i think it's too late. however, any sign that pa is in play tomorrow is a sign that romney is winning the election; he's unlikely to win pa alone; then it will be a trend through a series of swing states. if he wins pa by 1 he wins florida by 10 (well, 7 anyway) and virginia by 5. i am not expecting that, though.