a fave hawking ted question right now is: what surprises might we see in iowa? rubio finishes a strong third! really they have been completely hooked by their own establishment/outsider narrative and they can't envision any question except 'who emerges from the establishment track?' let's say people in iowa are under no obligation to think about it that way. if i were predicting a surprise - and it would be the sort of surprise we see in iowa in almost every cycle - it would be that someone who no one was really watching does surprisingly well. so, if i were calling a surprise right now, i'd look to paul's totals, or huckabee's. this is partly because i think the polls we're seeing are still lagging behind cruz's dip, and i'm thinking about who might benefit, and be howlin like howard dean when the night is through.